Business and financial forecasting is of extreme importance to managers at practically all levels. It is required for top managers to make long-term strategic decisions. Middle management uses sales forecasts to develop their departmental budgets. Every other plan such as a production plan, purchasing plan, manpower plan, and financial plan follows from demand forecasting. The critical element in any supply chain plan is the demand forecast. The goal of this course is to provide a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of firm size. We walk you through basic forecasting methodology, and then practical applications. It encompasses a wide range of topics of major importance to practical managers in all functional areas, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, interest rate forecasting, and technological forecasting.
Learning Objectives
Upon successful completion of this course, participants will be able to:
Chapter 1
Identify various aspects of forecasting methods.
Chapter 2
Identify the important steps to budgeting;
Recognize the value of sensitivity analysis; and
Identify factors in the computation of business valuation.
Chapter 3
Recognize the features of naive forecasting models; and
Recognize smoothing techniques.
Chapter 4
Identify the basic components of the time series data;
Recognize the steps to perform decomposition of time series; and
Recognize life cycle stages for new products.
Chapter 5
Identify assumptions use to forecast sales with the Markov model;
Understand the value of performing market surveys for forecasting;
Recognize methods of comparing a predicted forecast change with the observed change; and
Identify how to measure and rank accuracy of forecasts.
Chapter 6
Identify the value of a combination method of sales forecasting;
Recognize the use of different econometric models; and
Identify some sources of economic data that can be used to improve forecasts.
Chapter 7
Identify the steps in projecting financial needs for the firm;
Recognize the implication of earnings forecasts and the Sarbanes-Oxley Act requirements;
Identify different sources provided from security analysts for earnings projections; and
Identify benefits and methods of forecasting the cash collection pattern.
Chapter 8
Differentiate the costs found in a company;
Recognize different methods for estimating costs; and
Identify bankruptcy prediction models and the limitations of some methodologies.
Chapter 9
Recognize the reasons for managers to forecast the foreign exchange rates.
Chapter 10
Identify the different aspects of interest rate forecasts;
Identify characteristics and accuracy of technological forecasting; and
Identify the trends that affect the future of forecasting.
Major Topics
Forecasting and Managerial Planning
Forecasting, Budgeting and Business Valuation
Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods
Time Series Analysis, Classical Decomposition and Forecasting with No Data
Indirect Methods and Evaluating Forecasts
Sales and Revenue Forecasting and Forecasting the Economy
Financial Forecasting
Cost Behavior, Cost Prediction and Bankruptcy Prediction
Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates
Interest Rate and Technological Forecasting
